中国向“一带一路”沿线国家茶叶出口的影响因素及贸易潜力分析

doi:10.13305/j.cnki.jts.2019.02.012

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 通过构建拓展的引力方程模型,运用2001—2017年面板数据,采用泊松伪极大似然估计法（PPML）分析了中国向“一带一路”沿线国家茶叶出口的影响因素及贸易潜力。结果显示,茶叶进口国的经济规模和人口、中国茶叶产量、中国与贸易伙伴的距离、边界、语言等传统因素对中国向“一带一路”沿线国家出口茶叶具有显著影响,其中中国茶叶产量增加的供给推动作用更强。贸易潜力测算结果显示,中国向“一带一路”沿线国家茶叶出口贸易潜力在不同贸易伙伴之间存在差异,其中对东盟、南亚、中亚以及东欧的部分国家茶叶贸易发展充分,对西亚北非和中东欧部分国家茶叶贸易不足。最后从茶叶出口结构调整、茶文化推广与宣传、把握目标市场消费动态等方面提出我国向“一带一路”沿线国家茶叶市场拓展策略。

关键词: 茶叶, 一带一路, 引力模型, 贸易潜力

Abstract: By constructing an extended gravity equation model, using the 2001-2017 panel data, the influencing factors and trade potential of China tea exports to the countries along “the Belt and Road” were analyzed by the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) approach. The results show that traditional variables as the economic scale and population of tea importing countries, China tea production, geographical distance between China and partners, common boarder and common language had significant impacts on China tea exports. The increase of tea production in China had an especially higher effect on tea exports to “the Belt and Road” regions. For China tea export potential, there were differences among the countries and regions along “the Belt and Road”．Among them, tea trades in some countries like ASEAN, South Asia, Central Asia and Eastern Europe were fully developed. While tea trades in Western Asia, North Africa and parts of Central and Eastern Europe were not fully developed. Finally, strategies including adjusting China tea export structure, China tea culture promotion, grasping the consumption dynamics in the target market and expanding China tea market in countries along “the Belt and Road” were proposed.

Key words: tea, the Belt and Road, gravity model, export potential

中图分类号:

TS272
F742

张菲, 姜爱芹, 杨芳琴. 中国向“一带一路”沿线国家茶叶出口的影响因素及贸易潜力分析[J]. 茶叶科学, 2019, 39(2): 220-229. doi: 10.13305/j.cnki.jts.2019.02.012.

ZHANG Fei, JIANG Aiqin, YANG Fangqin. Analysis of the Determinants and Potential of China Tea Export to Countries along “the Belt and Road”[J]. Journal of Tea Science, 2019, 39(2): 220-229. doi: 10.13305/j.cnki.jts.2019.02.012.

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