关键词: 茶叶出口, 实际有效汇率, 名义汇率, 协整检验

Abstract: The exchange rate is an important lever to regulate the economy, and also is an important factor to affect the foreign trade. This paper adopted econometric models, like Co-integration relationship, Error Correction Model and Granger Cause, to analyze the influence on China’s tea export by the data of recent 30 years’ CNY exchange rate. The positive studies showed that exchange rate had negative effect on China’s tea export, and in the long-term they have co-integration. REER has stronger effects than NER on tea export, and the ECM of REER is more stable. Thus, related methods should be adopted to offset the negative impact when exchange rate fluctuates.

Key words: tea export, real effective exchange rate, nominal exchange rate, co-integration