基于CLIMEX和ArcGIS的灰茶尺蠖在中国的潜在适生区预测

doi:10.13305/j.cnki.jts.2020.06.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于中国820个气象站点数据、灰茶尺蠖已知地理分布资料和生物学数据,结合CLIMEX模型与ArcGIS软件模拟预测灰茶尺蠖在中国目前及未来的潜在分布范围,评估灰茶尺蠖的潜在分布范围及气候变暖对其分布的潜在影响。结果表明,灰茶尺蠖在中国目前的适生区主要分布在3°51′N~40°6′N,适生区面积占全国总面积的34.27%。中国大部分省份的气候条件均适合灰茶尺蠖种群生长。随着气候的变化,灰茶尺蠖在中国的潜在适生区面积总体增幅不大,但其组成变化较大。至2050年,预测灰茶尺蠖高度适生区面积占比达最大（22.23%）。相比各种能源之间的平衡情景（A1B）,较高能源需求情景（A2）下灰茶尺蠖在陕甘宁地区向内陆扩张更快。灰茶尺蠖在中国适生区分布广泛,应加强灰茶尺蠖预测预报,趁早采取防控措施,以保障茶叶优质安全生产。

关键词: 灰茶尺蠖, 气候变化, 适生区, 潜在分布, 预测

Abstract: Based on the data of 820 meteorological stations in China, known geographic distribution data and biological data, the current and potential geographic distribution of a major pest Ectropis grisescens Warren in tea plantations were predicted using CLIMEX models and ArcGIS software. The potential effects of climate change on the future distribution of E. grisescens were also evaluated. The results suggest that the potential geographic distribution area was between 3°51′N and 40°6′N, which accounts for 34.27% of the total area of the country. The climatic conditions of most provinces and regions in China were suitable for the survival of E. grisescens. Due to climate change, the increasing rate of potential suitable area for E. grisescens grew slowly, but its composition changed greatly. By 2050, the predicted proportion of highly suitable area reached a maximum of 22.23%. Compared with A1B, the A2 scenario would accelerate E. grisescens extension in Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia region. As E. grisescens are widely distributed in China, we suggested that monitoring measures should be improved and pest control should be taken as early as possible to ensure the safe production and quality of tea.

Key words: tea geometrid, climate change, suitable areas, potential distribution, prediction

中图分类号:

陈李林, 周浩, 赵杰. 基于CLIMEX和ArcGIS的灰茶尺蠖在中国的潜在适生区预测[J]. 茶叶科学, 2020, 40(6): 817-829. doi: 10.13305/j.cnki.jts.2020.06.009.

CHEN Lilin, ZHOU Hao, ZHAO Jie. Potential Climate-suitable Distribution of Ectropis Grisescens in China Based on the CLIMEX and ArcGIS Prediction[J]. Journal of Tea Science, 2020, 40(6): 817-829. doi: 10.13305/j.cnki.jts.2020.06.009.

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